The Confidence Check

00:00:14: Hello and welcome back.

00:00:16: This is the reflection at practice part following last Monday's episode called The Confidence Trap.

00:00:23: Before we start, I have a quick question for you.

00:00:27: A company buys an new AI tool together with online training And...the total package has cost of eleven thousand dollars.

00:00:39: Now..The AI Tool costs ten thousand dollars more than the Training.

00:00:44: How much does the training cost?

00:00:46: Answer now.

00:00:48: If your quick answer was one thousand dollars, you're in good company.

00:00:53: but the correct answer is five hundred.

00:00:56: The price of the AI tool is ten thousand five hundred dollars as Ten Thousand Five Hundred Is ten thousand more than five hundred and together this makes eleven thousand dollars.

00:01:09: This question is part of the cognitive reflection test designed by psychologist Shane Frederick.

00:01:17: Daniel Kahneman used it in his book, Thinking Fast and Slow because it perfectly shows how System One thinking works.

00:01:25: when Shane Frederick tested it with students at Harvard MIT and Princeton more than half of them also got it wrong.

00:01:35: so being smart doesn't protect us from system one thinking.

00:01:40: far too often The fast automatic part of our brain jumps to an answer before we have really thought about it.

00:01:48: Now, To be fair I did ask you go fast.

00:01:53: Nothing was at stake.

00:01:55: That's exactly when our autopilot saw System One takes over.

00:02:00: If i had said that you get a thousand dollars for the correct answer You would've taken more time.

00:02:09: That checking is our system-to thinking.

00:02:12: If you got the correct answer of five hundred dollars immediately, yours was already at work!

00:02:18: Congratulations.

00:02:20: The challenge is that we have to activate System Two Thinking.

00:02:26: This takes effort and energy And Our brain uses roughly twenty percent Of our daily energy consumption.

00:02:34: So when We're tired hungry or let's say Just running on empty.

00:02:40: When we are under stress or pressure, Or something feels very routine System one usually takes over.

00:02:48: just check out what happens when you go Very hungry into the supermarket.

00:02:53: your food choices will be made by system One not to.

00:02:58: most likely You would choose Empty calories to snack immediately instead of healthy nutritious food.

00:03:05: Doom scrolling through news and social media feeds is also us running on autopilot.

00:03:11: When System One sits in the driver's seat, we make snap calls on situations and people.

00:03:20: so consider how much you allow your autopilot to be in charge.

00:03:24: when you want to be certain about something... ...when you want get it right.

00:03:29: check if your system two thinking is ON now.

00:03:34: Knowing how easily our brain tricks us into false certainty and overconfidence is a crucial element.

00:03:42: It makes us more cautious, and it lets us pause... And to pause…is hard.

00:03:48: these days I know!

00:03:50: We reward quick-certainty over reflection –and performance over substance way too much–.

00:03:57: Ever notice that we hardly see any bestselling books about failures or things which didn't go so well?

00:04:04: But there are a ton of success stories that tell you if you work hard and follow the author's path, and recommendations.

00:04:12: You can achieve just as much.

00:04:15: Success Stories sell well because reading them already feels like progress.

00:04:23: We absorb someone else's path.

00:04:25: It makes sense it was a success And we walk away feeling like we've learned something.

00:04:31: but understanding apart and walking it are two very different things.

00:04:38: And there's another problem, success stories rarely disclose the whole truth even if they include some ups and downs.

00:04:48: those are mostly their for credibility.

00:04:51: most people leave out the parts where luck and other factors played to their favor.

00:04:58: think about undisclosed financial backing that allowed for taking risks or the right investment, The Right Person That Opened A Door For Them.

00:05:08: a trend caught early on without even knowing it was one.

00:05:13: These are all potential helpful factors that get easily overlooked and left out in such stories.

00:05:21: So let's go into our first reflection.

00:05:25: Think about something that went really well to you or a big decision you made, even the risk that was taken.

00:05:34: Got it?

00:05:35: Now reflect honestly!

00:05:38: When we look back at this now… Does it feel like YOU knew... That It would be a

00:05:42: success?!

00:05:44: Like You planned and controlled everything that led to the outcome?

00:05:49: That feeling has an aim – its called hindsight bias.

00:05:54: Its tendency is to look our successes & believe we predicted them that everything we did was leading to the results.

00:06:03: Only this is really what happened, our brain rewrites a story and makes it feel like that way And The reason This Matters?

00:06:12: When We Believed That Our Success Was Almost Guaranteed We Stopped Seeing Everything Else That Contributed The Timing – The People Who Helped The Advantages We May Have Started With.

00:06:26: Ignoring these factors creates blind spots.

00:06:30: Blind spots for the things that weren't in our hands, and this easily leads to overconfidence.

00:06:38: Hindsight bias runs just as much through Wall Street of pure skill and determination because rarely does someone say, I made the right call.

00:07:03: I worked hard for it and it worked out but i also got pretty lucky.

00:07:08: admitting to other influencing factors simply doesn't sell so well.

00:07:14: So go back to that success you just thought about And ask yourself honestly what role did luck play?

00:07:22: who helped me That might not even remember What was already in place before I even started?

00:07:29: Sitting with those questions doesn't take anything away from what you've achieved.

00:07:35: It just grounds how you carried the success story forward and how certain you feel about future decisions, predictions.

00:07:43: that is confident humility.

00:07:46: Next i want to think your expertise.

00:07:51: Think something you consider yourself really good at Something where you'd rate your skills higher than seventy percent of the people around.

00:08:00: You got it?

00:08:02: Okay, here are two questions When was the last time you learned something new in this area and when Was The Last Time you asked someone Your skill level or above to give you feedback Or even had a chance to discuss with them and challenge you?

00:08:23: if the answer to both is quite a while ago, think about it for a moment.

00:08:30: Because the skills that we feel most confident about are often areas where eventually stop growing.

00:08:39: We believe we've mastered them and mostly its our confidence telling us what to do.

00:08:46: It overrules our curiosity And now I want give you something to practice!

00:08:52: It will help you avoid bias.

00:08:54: judgments on other people Before your next conversation with someone you have a strong opinion about can be positive or negative.

00:09:08: So before we go into this conversation, I want to sit down for just few minutes and clean the slate!

00:09:16: Ask yourself what do i think of that person?

00:09:20: Maybe some thoughts come up... This guy is too ambitious.

00:09:27: He wants to much too soon.

00:09:29: I think she'll be great in this new project, I could give him that responsibility But he's not confident enough to deal with the team Whatever it is.

00:09:38: just name it acknowledge The opinion you hold then write a town and cross it out.

00:09:46: Erase it.

00:09:47: do whatever feels like cleaning the slate for you.

00:09:51: when you do this You deliberately decide that you're not looking for evidence that reinforces your opinion.

00:09:58: Instead, you focus on what the conversation really is about.

00:10:03: Are You Concerned About The Recent Performance?

00:10:06: Ask a Person What Is Going On In Your Life Right Now?

00:10:10: Is Anything Bothering You?

00:10:12: You Think The Ambition Of Someone May Become A Problem?

00:10:16: Ask Them Specific Questions About Their Goals And Manage Their Expectations.

00:10:21: Show Them What more there is to learn before they can take the next level?

00:10:27: Someone seems to lack the confidence or visibility to lead a project, but they clearly have the skills.

00:10:33: Explain why you see them in that role.

00:10:36: Give them encouraging feedback on their skills.

00:10:38: That matter.

00:10:40: When we let our opinion about someone run conversations with them We not only miss out on opportunities to correct it But also don't look for right measures in order to lead them well.

00:10:55: So clean the slate, focus on the topic not on validating your opinion.

00:11:01: Another practice I want you try is about decision-making.

00:11:06: For the next two weeks ask the following question whenever you're sharing your thinking or making a decision What am i missing?

00:11:16: and In team setting what are we missing?

00:11:19: then?

00:11:20: wait don't fill the silence The first few times, people might not respond because they're not used to it.

00:11:27: Keep asking!

00:11:29: Turn into regular practice.

00:11:32: If you can keep up for a month You will notice shift.

00:11:36: Eventually things come up.

00:11:39: But the most important part is listen and observe more.

00:11:45: So today we have two reflections.

00:11:47: Number one Awareness for how you connect outcomes to the factors that helped you succeed.

00:11:54: Number two, How updated your skills really are?

00:12:00: And I also gave you two practices practice.

00:12:03: one cleaning the slate and focusing on The topic instead of confirming Your opinion about the person.

00:12:11: and Two frequently asking what could be missing inviting your own and other thoughts to help you uncover blind spots.

00:12:21: That's it for today!

00:12:23: If you want to keep an eye on biases, the Leader's Bias cheat sheet is a free download at thenewworkplaybook.com The link in the show notes And if you enjoy and use this format please do me a favor.

00:12:38: I would really like hear which kind of practices work best.

00:12:43: so connect with me on LinkedIn.

00:12:46: If you listen to the confidence trap, You may remember that at the end I said we could all use a bit more curiosity especially about other people.

00:12:57: So next week i will show you why Curiosity is such valuable practice for organizations and each one of us.

00:13:08: Stay curious stay tuned.

00:13:10: Thanks for tuning in To The New Work Playbook Where work gets better because People Matter.