The Confidence Trap

00:00:01: Imagine you're about to go into a job interview.

00:00:05: Would you rather wish for more competence or confidence?

00:00:22: Welcome back!

00:00:23: Today we are looking at how easy it is, to fall in the confidence trap.

00:00:28: It catches us mostly on situations when confidence isn't grounded in competence To put simply its overconfidence.

00:00:36: And there two directions from which can fall into the trap.

00:00:40: The first direction is that we fall for the confidence of other people and it's easy.

00:00:46: Confidence has a strong attractive pull, It gets us to trust others And We easily believe That their display Of confidence matches Their competence.

00:00:56: Today this trap seems To get bigger in many ways With the rise of social media.

00:01:07: Most often we see the loudest and best self-marketeers reach people, And they aren't necessarily the most competent ones.

00:01:15: The attention economy amplifies this.

00:01:18: Platforms like Instagram are designed to reward confident performance... ...and many influencers have mastered the art of looking like experts without being one.

00:01:29: It's marketing not expertise!

00:01:32: With shrinking attention spans We rarely stop to question any of it because following confident people is natural human behavior.

00:01:42: This how we grow up and learn, it's how we survive!

00:01:46: We follow our parents or teachers And other who seem to have more experience and knowledge than us.

00:01:52: We trust them and naturally associate confidence with competence Hearing an expert talk Following a leader strategy Or the advice of a doctor requires us to trust him.

00:02:05: Imagine you are seeing two doctors for treatment.

00:02:08: Dr A says... So I could prescribe something, it's fairly new and quite talked about —I don't have much experience with that yet— but tests apparently show pretty good results of conditions like yours so i think you should try it.

00:02:22: Next you speak to Dr B So I'm going to prescribe it for two weeks.

00:03:02: But we're living in a world that not only rewards grounded confidence.

00:03:08: It has somehow evolved to reward the simple display of it even more, and if you look at where kind-of overconfidence is playing out right now – Look At The Race For AI Technology A technology built just for few years… That's definitely extraordinary!

00:03:25: But the confidence that we can handle all its implications while racing to scale it and use it at large is certainly worth questioning, because a key challenge for us all are – We never know how much or what we don't know.

00:03:40: And unless you stay open to learning and reflection….

00:03:44: …we will fall into the trap from another direction meaning that we're falling for our own confidence!

00:03:51: Let me tell you about my most painful experience of falling into that trap.

00:03:56: A couple years ago, My husband decided That just going uphill with our mountain bikes and back down on the regular routes was a bit boring.

00:04:05: He's certainly the adventurous type And from time to time I do enjoy a bit of adrenaline myself Not as much as him but in this case i wasn't really given a choice.

00:04:16: He surprised me with the gift of a one-day training course, With a downhill riding professional.

00:04:22: And he advertised it quite well to my by saying It would give more confidence and security when I learned these techniques.

00:04:30: So just couple days later we had that training... ...and was great!

00:04:35: We were given all the techniques practiced on stand where The bike hanging in air so you could feel every action and how influenced its movement.

00:04:45: We learned and I built just enough confidence to go on a beginner trail in the afternoon.

00:04:50: Now, for those of you unfamiliar with downhill trails they're designed to have fun!

00:04:55: With many turns some steep areas for speed and bumps to make it jump a bit And You don't sit while riding but you stand to fully control the bike.

00:05:05: The Afternoon Trail turned out To be A lot Of Fun !

00:05:08: The trainer let us ride It In parts so he could still Observe & Correct Us.

00:05:13: My initial fear faded and I think my husband was already quietly celebrating the chance of picking up this new hobby together.

00:05:22: So, next he booked us a trip to Saalbach.

00:05:26: It's well-known skiing area in Austria And it offers trail riding in summer.

00:05:31: Like the ski slopes The trails are color coded for different experience levels.

00:05:36: Now i honestly don't remember seeing a code For the trail which she took me on... ...and im sure that after what happened I will also never find out.

00:05:45: But it took me only five turns on that trail for a pretty painful lesson in overconfidence.

00:05:52: What happened to me actually has a name, It's called the Dunning-Kruger effect!

00:05:57: i went from someone with zero knowledge about trail riding To some one with little knowledge and some practice Which made me confident That could ride that trail.

00:06:07: The problem?

00:06:08: My confidence clearly didn't match my skill level.

00:06:11: In this scenario And despite some recent debate on the research of David Dunning and Justin Kruger about how strong a pattern they presented actually is, their overall observation holds.

00:06:23: When we know zero –we feel fine admitting it!

00:06:26: We are naturally cautious & willing to learn.

00:06:29: Learning then builds our confidence.

00:06:32: We start seeing moments of success through understanding applying new knowledge and connecting the dots.

00:06:38: Soon something interesting happens Our confidence shoots up very quickly.

00:06:43: It usually does so much faster than our actual skill.

00:06:47: We start feeling like we've got it and trust ourselves too much And that was me right there on the steep trail in Austria.

00:06:55: So, The first moment where should be careful of not becoming overconfident is when were at beginner mode.

00:07:02: But today the way Confidence being rewarded has a significant impact.

00:07:07: how children develop Social media and its self-performance focus has especially impacted the younger generation in ways that amplify a simple display of confidence.

00:07:19: It gets rewarded with attention, with likes followers and visibility.

00:07:24: The generations that grew up entirely inside this system didn't choose it but they were definitely shaped by it.

00:07:30: They learned very early on.

00:07:32: how you present yourself often matters more than what sits behind And it's certainly not their fault because, its the environment that previous generations handed them.

00:07:43: So It shouldn't come as a surprise That the gap between performed confidence and grounded Confidence is getting wider these days.

00:07:51: How we rewarded matters Performance over substance leads people away from path that actually builds learning and ability to see our own fallibility our key countermeasures against overconfidence, not just for young people but all of us.

00:08:08: Because the trap catches us as much when we progress and become experts with strong skills!

00:08:16: The more we establish ourselves in positions that signal expertise or experience –the easier to get pulled out from a learning path helped us get there.

00:08:26: We've built an authority which comes along with recognition & trust.

00:08:31: People see our position as validated.

00:08:34: And the higher we climb, The easier it becomes to lose sight of things We don't know.

00:08:39: A position with recognition creates an environment where people rarely question Our thinking and decision making.

00:08:47: This creates blind spots.

00:08:49: Our successes equally contribute To overconfidence a track record and other people believing in It Rarely produce self-doubt.

00:08:57: That's when many people start to believe that being great in a certain domain makes them an expert and related areas.

00:09:05: Your husband just fixed the toaster?

00:09:07: Well, maybe next time you'll find him fixing your washing machine!

00:09:12: Think about The Fitness Influencer who built following with workout routines.

00:09:17: They clearly know what they're doing And results are strong.

00:09:20: One day they started giving nutrition advice.

00:09:23: Of course, fitness and nutrition go hand-in-hand.

00:09:26: And though they are not nutrition experts... ...they hold some good knowledge!

00:09:30: Next they give supplement recommendations….

00:09:33: …and then start talking about hormone levels & blood work as if that had been to medical school.

00:09:39: Their audience doesn't question it because the authority built in one area simply gets carried over.

00:09:46: Ego and confidence grow with recognition – together make them very hard.

00:09:51: to stop saying Actually, I don't know enough about this.

00:09:56: In business the area where i've seen this most is when leaders evaluate other people.

00:10:01: throughout my career I kept asking myself what makes them so sure they're good at this?

00:10:07: The reasoning I came across most.

00:10:09: They have established themselves as experts then became managers So they can obviously work with others which means they must also know how to read People!

00:10:19: After having sat in hundreds of interviews, evaluation meetings and eventually training leaders on how to assess other people carefully my observation is rather without training an experience most of us tend to be pretty bad at knowing how to read other people.

00:10:36: And the reason is simple humans are complex!

00:10:40: And humans interacting with other humans is even more complex.

00:10:45: our predictability is pretty low because we aren't robots.

00:10:49: The number of variables influencing how we perform is also pretty high.

00:10:54: Just think about your good and bad days at work, And the many things that can lead to one or other.

00:11:00: When you get a new job Many variables change New colleagues A new boss New processes to learn Maybe relocate?

00:11:08: Have whole life set up.

00:11:10: Our capabilities are same But let just one variable be problematic Things shift easily.

00:11:17: What does recruiting usually look like?

00:11:20: We interview people about their past experience, their achievements and goals.

00:11:24: And we try to capture the motivation in personality.

00:11:28: Then we try match all of this information with job environment.

00:11:32: That's nothing other than running a predictability assessment on future outcomes.

00:11:37: It comes with a lot influencing factors So when you decide to hire someone You are simply placing bed on them Now.

00:11:45: consider that the time spent in interviews is very limited, and information quality strongly depends on practices' capabilities of interviewers.

00:11:56: Wouldn't you agree that recruiting should be a well-established process?

00:12:00: And any person involved with an assessment should have gone through substantial training before they take part.

00:12:08: Such a training doesn't just focus on how to assess personality, motivation and capabilities but also in how not let our own thinking with all its mental shortcuts influence our evaluation.

00:12:21: I have given many such training sessions The hard truth.

00:12:26: most leaders didn't get them before they held the responsibility To judge other people.

00:12:31: When finally saw much that had been missing They were genuinely thankful And willing learn more Because being able to read another person, To really see them understand what drives them and which capabilities they have is absolutely essential.

00:12:50: And this where I want you to introduce Daniel Kahneman.

00:12:54: He spent decades studying how we make decisions.

00:12:58: One of the most useful things he gave us Is a distinction between system one and two thinking.

00:13:06: Imagine having two decision-making engines in your brain.

00:13:10: System one is fast, it's automatic.

00:13:13: It's the part that decides within seconds whether you trust someone or not.

00:13:17: System Two Is rather slow.

00:13:19: We have to activate and it requires effort and energy.

00:13:24: In an interview system two would be The Part That Stops You And asks... Do I think highly of them because their actual capabilities or they went to the same university?

00:13:41: Is it rather confidence that speaks for me and their competence.

00:13:45: System one is our autopilot, shifting gears following every day route.

00:13:51: we can trust.

00:13:53: but high stakes situations require system two thinking.

00:14:01: But when we are tired, under pressure or simply used to doing things a certain way We default to system one.

00:14:08: That's where recruiting processes become vulnerable.

00:14:12: even When there are multiple interviewers and very clear evaluation criteria System One thinking can still impact our decisions.

00:14:21: It still influences how we interpret answers How we rate what we hear Which candidate remember most at the end of day?

00:14:29: So clear and well-designed processes help, but they don't necessarily keep people from running on autopilot.

00:14:37: Kahneman called this the illusion of validity.

00:14:40: feeling sure about a judgment is not the same as being right about it.

00:14:44: his research showed that even experienced evaluators were giving poor predictions.

00:14:50: Even when there was shown That their predictions where wrong It didn't change how confident They felt About next candidate.

00:14:59: We have done things in certain ways, we feel confident it's working and when it doesn't... ...we find other reasons to be the cause.

00:15:07: When someone turns out to be a wrong hire….

00:15:09: …it is easy not question our decision making or finding excuses like they've just sold themselves.

00:15:15: really well!

00:15:16: The role evolved – It wasn't what were originally hired for And very typical one.

00:15:22: They didn't fit their culture.

00:15:24: So what does it actually look like when our system one thinking is running the show?

00:15:30: In judging other people, It shows up as biases.

00:15:34: Biases are mental shortcuts that happen subconsciously.

00:15:38: They get us to develop certain expectations and attribute traits & behaviors To people without even realizing it.

00:15:45: Let me give you a few examples Some of them You've probably heard off.

00:15:50: The halo effect Is One Of The Most Common Biases.

00:15:53: When someone carries a positive attribute, like attractiveness or ambition it colors how we see them entirely.

00:16:01: One positive quality becomes the filter for everything else.

00:16:05: then there's confirmation bias meaning once we've formed an impression We start looking for evidence that confirms it.

00:16:13: information That contradicts our judgment gets overlooked Or even explained away.

00:16:19: We also get influenced by similarity bias as we tend to favor people who are like us.

00:16:25: Same educational background, same sense of humor or the same career path and this one is particularly tricky because it often gets translated into cultural fit.

00:16:36: To fall for biases is also human And btw AI isn't necessarily a solution.

00:16:43: Algorithms carry biases from their training data forward so they don't remove human bias but can actually scale it.

00:16:51: Amazon learned this the hard way, They built an AI hiring tool which was trained on ten years of CV data.

00:16:57: Most these CVs came from men.

00:17:00: The outcome is fairly obvious.

00:17:03: So in leadership when our decisions shape other people's careers and lives being unaware of biases Is not acceptable.

00:17:12: I've put together a free resource called The leader's bias cheat sheet.

00:17:17: It covers twelve of the most common biases that affect how we make decisions and judge other people.

00:17:24: You can find a link in show notes, it is definitely good tool to stay aware.

00:17:29: But awareness alone won't keep us from falling into trap.

00:17:33: And I'm also not saying We shouldn't trust our confidence.

00:17:36: A Leader who cant decide Who questions every call isn't leading anyone.

00:17:41: The risk lies in confidence without humility.

00:17:45: Staying open to being wrong is what Adam Grant calls confident humility.

00:17:51: For those who don't know him yet, Adam Grant is best-selling author and organizational psychologist at Wharton.

00:17:57: In his book Think Again he says that most people think Confidence & Humility work like a seesaw More of one means less the other And explains why it's wrong.

00:18:10: We can have both at the same time.

00:18:12: Confidence is how much we believe and trust in our capabilities, humility is how many we recognize that were human….

00:18:20: …and that all of us are blindspots!

00:18:22: So we can be confident with our ability to learn & grow... ...and still be honest about things we don't know yet.

00:18:29: Grant also calls this having a scientist's mindset because scientists don't start with conclusion then go look for proof.

00:18:38: They start with a question or hypothesis.

00:18:41: They look for evidence and counter-evidence to test it, then they use the results to update their thinking.

00:18:48: And what drives a scientist mindset?

00:18:51: Curiosity.

00:18:52: So when we reward certainty and confidence too much It reduces our curiosity and drives our ego To create blind spots because eventually We tie our identity and that gets us to become less open, to being wrong.

00:19:09: We also lose our willingness to keep learning which eventually includes interest in the perspectives & ideas of other people.

00:19:18: So In practice staying open To Being Wrong means awareness That Our track record doesn't make Us The Expert In Every Situation.

00:19:27: It Also Means Asking ourselves And Others What Could I Be Missing?

00:19:32: When it comes to judging other people, It is this balance of confidence and humility paired with genuine curiosity about People that separates an I can read people in seconds kind Of leader from the one That knows their biases.

00:19:48: when we are open To being wrong We stay curious And keep learning!

00:19:53: People also tend to trust those leaders more Who were Open About Their Limitations Because such leaders shape an environment where employees feel invited to present their ideas, to ask questions and give different perspectives.

00:20:07: Curiosity is not only the foundation of learning but it's essential for innovation.

00:20:13: Workplaces that embrace this attract a kind people who seek leaders who pave way for them grow instead continuously showing they're the smartest person in room.

00:20:25: Steve Jobs said We don't hire smart people to tell them what to do.

00:20:30: We hire smart peoples so they can tell us, What To Do.

00:20:34: This is why I recommend anyone who deeply identifies as an expert or someone primarily driven by personal excellence to follow and expert career letter And not take leadership positions Because when being the smartest person in a room Is part of your identity.

00:20:52: Others' ideas, thinking and competence can eventually feel like a threat.

00:20:58: And instead of protecting outcomes and development such leaders tend to protect their identity.

00:21:04: They don't hire people who could grow smarter than them.

00:21:07: they Don't focus on getting others to perform the best.

00:21:11: So let geniuses be geniuses and experts.

00:21:15: Be experts!

00:21:16: Don't turn them into leaders and expect them To produce more geniuses.

00:21:21: Now I really love James Bond movies.

00:21:25: Who doesn't like a hero willing to fight the villains of The World?

00:21:28: And producing this episode reminded me of a scene from Casino Royale.

00:21:33: Bond had acted recklessly, trusting his own judgement.

00:21:37: instead following the mission and M played by the wonderful Dame Judi Dench confronts him.

00:21:43: Given his overconfidence she extends her warning.

00:21:48: arrogance and self-awareness seldom go hand in hand.

00:21:52: Practicing Self Awareness & Balancing Confidence with Humility, that's what keeps us grounded!

00:21:59: In the coming reflection episode I will share some great fun ways to do this.

00:22:04: If you don't want to miss it hit the subscribe button to get notified when its live.

00:22:09: Now for those of who are still curious about my downhill career well I left it on that mountain in Austria.

00:22:18: Despite my husband's hope, buying all kinds of protective gear after my crash would get me to return... ...I decided this hobby wasn't for me but there surely is always something to discover and learn!

00:22:33: And when it comes to leadership being able really understand other people There one thing we could use a bit more off Curiosity.

00:22:43: So stay curious Stay tuned.

00:22:45: Thanks for tuning into the new Work Playbook, where work is better because people matter!